Risks favor: Carefully Floating

Current Price of FNMA 5.5% Bond: $99.88, +6bp

With no economic news on the calendar today, action is slow as Traders gear up for what is expected to be a week filled with some of the biggest economic events of the month.

On Wednesday, the Fed will release their Policy Statement and interest rate decision. At the moment, the Fed Fund Futures are pricing a 75% probability of a .25% cut to the Fed Funds Rate. We also see a .25% cut, but of far more importance will be the Fed’s Policy Statement. As you know, Bond prices have reacted very poorly after Fed Rate cuts, due to the expectation that the cut will spur on inflation. But if the wording of the Policy Statement leads Traders to believe this may be the final cut, it might just have the opposite effect, helping Bonds actually move higher with the reduced prospect of the Fed spurring future inflation.

Right on the heels of the Fed decision and statement, Thursday will bring the Fed’s most favored gauge of consumer inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE). Especially since it will come after Fed day, it will be interesting to see the inflation read in light of the Fed’s decision. And as if this weren’t excitement enough for the week, Friday will bring the important Jobs Report, where early estimates are for a loss of 80,000 jobs.

With Bonds currently trading between overhead resistance at the 50-day Moving Average and support at the 200-day Moving Average, Bonds will likely take their cues from action in the Stock market today.